Red Wings' Contention Window May Be Opening, Model Says
Detroit's young core and prospect depth lifted its future rating, though the analysts behind the model remain cautious about the roster's ceiling.
The Red Wings have spent the summer absorbing major changes: Steve Yzerman is out, Patrick Kane has departed and Dylan Larkin has requested a trade. Against that backdrop, a model placing Detroit in "window opening" territory stands out.
The Athletic's Contention Cycle project, which assesses each franchise's competitive position, gave the Red Wings an 8.2 Future Rating and a 5.4 Present Rating. Scott Wheeler, one of the project's authors, said he was surprised by the result.
Detroit's Future Rating is driven largely by two factors. Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond and Simon Edvinsson project to have staying power over the next five years, and nine Red Wings prospects appear in the model's Prospect Tiers.
Co-author Dom Luszczyszyn was more skeptical. He pointed to underwhelming early returns from Marco Kasper, Nate Danielson and Axel Sandin-Pellikka. Removing Larkin from the calculation drops Detroit's Present Rating to 3.8, closer to what many observers expect.
The central roster question is at center. Red Wings reporter Max Bultman argued that Kasper projects more as a No. 2 center and Danielson as a bottom-six option. Wheeler described the 2026 draft as center-heavy but said he does not currently see a clear No. 1 center in the class. He views Jonah Neuenschwander and Milan Sundstrom more as high-end second-line options than franchise-changing players.
The optimistic case rests on the depth Detroit could build around Seider, Raymond and Edvinsson, similar to the approach that helped Carolina and Buffalo advance in last season's playoffs. The concern is that depth without a true top-line center could limit the Red Wings' ceiling.
