Broberg Leads ESPN's Six Fantasy Defense Breakout Picks
Sean Allen's analysis puts the typical breakout window near age 24 and 254 games; Broberg, Drysdale, Power, Hughes, Mintyukov and Moser fit the profile.
ESPN fantasy writer Sean Allen's review of NHL game logs since 2009-10 found that sustained fantasy breakouts for defensemen begin, on average, at 24 years and 248 days old with about 254 career games played.
Allen set the breakout threshold at a rolling 41-game average above 1.89 fantasy points per game, the median across 1,020 individual top-60 defense seasons. Of 98 eligible defensemen whose complete careers were available in the sample, 73 sustained that rate for at least 41 consecutive games.
The analysis excludes players who have already produced a top-60 fantasy season and identifies six 2026-27 candidates in or near the historical window.
Philip Broberg, St. Louis: The 25-year-old has 230 career games and averaged 1.14 fantasy points per game. Justin Faulk's move to Detroit creates an opening on the Blues' power play, but Broberg must compete with Logan Mailloux for the quarterback role.
Jamie Drysdale, Philadelphia: Drysdale enters the season at age 24 with 295 games played, a 32-point season behind him and a new four-year contract. ESPN projects a path to the Flyers' top power-play unit if he stays healthy.
Owen Power, Buffalo: The former No. 1 pick has 323 games of experience at age 23. His opportunity is clear, but he recorded no power-play points in 75 minutes on the unit last season.
Luke Hughes, New Jersey: Hughes averaged 1.39 fantasy points through 223 games and ranked 14th among qualified defensemen in power-play points per 60 last season, even while sharing time with Dougie Hamilton.
Pavel Mintyukov, Anaheim: The 22-year-old has played 204 games and signed a five-year, $36 million extension. Jackson LaCombe currently holds the top power-play role, which limits Mintyukov's immediate scoring ceiling.
J.J. Moser, Tampa Bay: Moser is older than the average breakout age at 26 but has 338 games of experience and averaged 1.34 fantasy points per game. ESPN sees additional value if he adds more blocks and hits to his top-pair minutes.
