Nobody Knows What These Maple Leafs Are Yet
A projection puts Toronto at 93.4 points, while the scenarios around its changed roster range from 78 to 108.
The 2026-27 Toronto Maple Leafs are difficult to project. One model places them near the playoff line, while the outcomes outlined this week span 30 points.
Dom Luszczyszyn’s model at The Athletic projects Toronto for 93.4 points, 17th in the NHL. Sportsnet’s breakdown of three possible outcomes gives the Leafs a low of 78 points and a high of 108, with a middle scenario between them.
The goaltending change is one of the clearest pieces of Toronto’s offseason. The Maple Leafs announced that they had signed Sergei Bobrovsky to a three-year contract. He was 27-23-1 with a .877 save percentage in 52 regular-season games for Florida last season, according to the team.
The high-end scenario depends on several things going right, including Auston Matthews staying healthy, rookie Gavin McKenna adapting quickly and Bobrovsky rebounding. The low end reflects the possibility that those bets do not pay off. Those are scenarios, not a prediction of Toronto’s exact finish.
The 93.4-point projection puts the Leafs close enough to the postseason conversation that the spread between the low and high cases captures how much remains unsettled.
