Buy The Down Year: Fantasy Bounceback Targets For 2026-27

ESPN's fantasy hockey staff built its 2026-27 bounceback list on one premise: a bad season is often a discount, not a decline. Its example is Connor McDavid, who fell from 3.21 fantasy points per game to 2.60 in 2024-25 and then returned to 3.21 last season.

ESPN looked back to 2009-10 and found 59 forwards with a career average of at least 1.7 fantasy points per game who dropped by 0.35 or more in a season and later climbed back above their career rate, 78 times between them. Evgeni Malkin did it four times and Matt Duchene five. Only 20 defencemen at that level have done it, with Kris Letang, Roman Josi, Ryan Pulock and Shayne Gostisbehere each doing it twice, and ESPN argues that scarcity is what makes a discounted defenceman worth chasing.

It happened again last season. Among forwards, Zach Hyman, Mika Zibanejad, Jason Robertson and Mikko Rantanen bounced back from weak 2024-25 campaigns; on the blue line, Brock Faber, Noah Dobson, Charlie McAvoy and Adam Fox did too.

Here are five of the forwards on ESPN's list.

Auston Matthews, C, Toronto (2.89 career, 2.56 last season). Without Mitch Marner, Matthews had 15 goals through the first three months of the season, 38th in the NHL, and his year ended after 60 games with 27 goals and 53 points. He was still sixth in the NHL in shots per minute. ESPN's advice is to confirm at camp that his knee is sound and then take him in the first round.

Mitch Marner, RW, Vegas (2.20 career, 1.96 last season). ESPN treats his first season with the Golden Knights as an adjustment rather than a drop in ability, pointing out that he led the NHL in playoff scoring. It puts his floor at a top-50 fantasy forward.

J.T. Miller, C/LW, New York Rangers (1.92 career, 1.82 last season). Injuries and a team-wide scoring slump hurt his first half before he put up useful fantasy totals in March and April. Now that Vincent Trocheck has been dealt to Utah, he becomes a full-time centre. Because he is 33, ESPN expects 70-plus points rather than a return to his best seasons.

Brayden Point, C/RW, Tampa Bay (2.08 career, 1.57 last season). Point missed 19 games and shot a career-low 14.0 percent. At season's end he said injuries were not the reason, but that his game has to change as he gets older. He still centres Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel, and ESPN calls him a mid-round gamble rather than a sure pick.

Jesper Bratt, RW, New Jersey (1.70 career, 1.73 last season). ESPN traces his dip to 14 fewer power-play points and the games Jack Hughes missed, while his even-strength play with Hughes held up. New Jersey added depth on the wing this summer, so Bratt will have to earn his place on the top power-play unit again.