Buy The Down Year: Fantasy Bounceback Targets For 2026-27
Connor McDavid's dip and recovery is the template. Here are the skaters whose bad seasons have made them cheap at the draft table.
Connor McDavid slipped from 3.21 fantasy points per game to 2.60 in 2024-25, then climbed right back to 3.21. That is the whole bounceback argument in one line: if it can happen to the best player alive, it can happen to whoever you spent last spring apologizing for.
The history backs it up. Going back to 2009-10, 59 forwards with a career mark of at least 1.7 FPPG have suffered a real down season (a drop of 0.35 FPPG or more) and later climbed back above their career average, pulling it off 78 times between them. Evgeni Malkin did it four times. Matt Duchene did it five. On defense the club is smaller, just 20 blueliners off that same 1.7 bar, with Kris Letang, Roman Josi, Ryan Pulock and Shayne Gostisbehere each rebounding twice. That scarcity is the point: a discounted defenseman moves the needle further.
Last season alone, Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Mika Zibanejad and Zach Hyman shook off ugly 2024-25 campaigns, while Charlie McAvoy, Adam Fox, Noah Dobson and Brock Faber did it from the back end.
Auston Matthews, C, Toronto (2.89 career, 2.56 last season). The offense stalled without Mitch Marner and Matthews opened with 15 goals in three months, 38th in the league. His year ended at 60 games, 27 goals, 53 points. But he finished sixth in the NHL in shots per minute. Confirm the knee at camp, then take him in the first round.
Mitch Marner, RW, Vegas (2.20 career, 1.96 last season). Year one in Vegas was a soft landing, not a letdown. He drove a line all season and led the NHL in playoff scoring. The floor is a top-50 forward.
J.T. Miller, C/LW, New York (1.92 career, 1.82 last season). Injuries and a team scoring drought buried the first half, but he was fantasy relevant in March and April. With Vincent Trocheck traded to Utah, the full-time center job is his. He is 33, so buy 70-plus points, not the peak.
Brayden Point, C/RW, Tampa Bay (2.08 career, 1.57 last season). He missed 19 games and shot a career-low 14.0 percent, then declined to blame injuries, saying his game has to evolve as he ages. He still centers Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel. A mid-round dart, not a conviction pick.
Jesper Bratt, RW, New Jersey (1.70 career, 1.73 last season). He shed 14 points of power-play production and some of Jack Hughes' availability. The even-strength chemistry with Hughes is intact, but New Jersey added top-six wing depth without subtracting any, so PP1 is something he has to win back.
