Will Martin Brodeur be better than .500 in the same season he reaches 500?
I doubt it.
As much as I respect what Brodeur has achieved in his remarkable career, he'll be a win one, lose one goalie this season.
My reasons are two-fold.
To start with, the New Jersey Devils aren't much better than a .500 team.
Brent Sutter has a bright future as an NHL coach but it's going to be a struggle to get through his rookie season.
I just don't see enough talent on the roster to think the Devils are anything but mediocre. A weak back end can't be hidden for an entire season, no matter how effective Sutter's defence-first systems are.
More important to me is Brodeur's age and workload. One's getting up there and the other has been there for a decade.
At 35, he might finally be showing some wear and tear. He's had to shoulder the weight of the franchise since he came into the league in 1993.
Brodeur has played in 905 NHL games. He's averaged 70 games every year for the past 10.
Excessive mileage will make even a Bentley break down eventually.
The most telling stat, in my mind, is Brodeur's save percentage. At .887, it's easily the lowest of his career (not counting the four games he played his last year of junior).
Even more painful is that he's 35th in the league in save percentage and just a hair better than Johan Hedberg and Alex Auld. Neither of those two guys hold a prepaid ticket to the Hall of Fame.
We shouldn't have to wait long for Brodeur to reach the half-century mark, which will put him 51 wins behind all-time leader Patrick Roy. Big Numero 500 could come Friday against the Islanders.
That would certainly be worthy of a trip to Manhattan for a wee celebration.
But it would be nothing like the bash the Devils would host if Brodeur could get the team above .500 this season.