Don't kid yourself poolies, in fantasy hockey there are absolutes.
Fantasy hockey does have its intangible side, but before I do any digging to find those "sleepers" to fill in my pool, I make certain to know who the sure bets are.
Here are my fearless forecasts - or peerless prognostications - for this year's crop of 21 of the best fantasy hockey picks. It's broken down into a team-like group of 12 forwards, seven defensemen and two goalies.
Whether you're in a straight-up, pick ‘em and leave ‘em keeper pool, or involved in a draft, you can ignore this group at your peril.
So, before you get all "he don't know jack", you may want to check out who I think the best of the rest forwards are in a post later this week. While we're at it, overlooked defensemen and goalies will get the treatment too. Sleepers, of course, can be found once I've sorted out the rest.
Forwards
Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
The Lowdown - Sid makes any forecaster's job really easy. Think about it, he led the league in scoring at the tender age of 19. He was the league MVP to boot. Having just turned 20, he is still six or seven years from his prime, for Pete's sake. You can make the Kid from Cole Harbor your top pick for the next 10 years.
Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals
The Lowdown - Unlike many of his contemporaries, Ovechkin is a fun-loving card and talks like his publicist is Vince Vaughan. He also put up great numbers on a really crappy hockey club. Veteran Michael Nylander will don a retro Caps jerseys this year, so look for Nylander to push Alex back over the century mark in points and get his plus-minus back up (-19 in 06-07).
Marian Hossa, Atlanta Thrashers
The Lowdown - There was a lot of scorn towards Hossa when he was traded out of Ottawa a while back. Too soft, some said. Disappears in playoffs, others opined. Blah, blah, blah. I think all the naysayers would him on their fantasy team in a minute. The big Slovak counted 100 points last season and there is no reason to believe he won't surpass that mark in 07-08.
Dany Heatley, Ottawa Senators
The Lowdown - Back-to-back 50 goal seasons might make the dubious among you think this is anything but a safe pick. Hardly. Ottawa is loaded with big-time talent and just getting enough ice time to put up those numbers is a challenge. In fact, Heatley played a full minute and a half less than fellow 50-goal sniper Vincent Lecavalier. I think 60 is in reach if John Paddock can scrounge him up two more shifts a game.
Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lowdown - Vinny finally came into his own in 06-07, after years of constant badgering and cajoling by Coach Tortorella. Martin St. Louis may the darling of the pundits and Brad Richards a poster boy, but Lecavalier is a scoring wizard who will just get better. Another 50-goal, 50-assist season is more than possible.
Jaromir Jagr - New York Rangers
The Lowdown - I have to admit, this is a safe pick. Yet Jagr, despite his advancing years, is still the force on the ice. He will show newcomers Chris Drury and Scott Gomez what it's like to be a star on Broadway. This pundit knows his output will surpass 100 points this year. Easy.
Jason Spezza, Ottawa Senators
The Lowdown - Spezza missed 15 games last year and still finished 15th in scoring. Had he played the full 82 games, he may have finished in the top five. If there is one downfall-or reason to be optimistic-it is that Spezza hasn't played a full season yet. I think he is poised to have a monster year, if he can stay healthy. A 40-60, goal-assist split is well within his grasp.
Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames
The Lowdown: With Mike Keenan at the helm, the stifling defense-first system of the previous Calgary regime is getting an overhaul. Iginla has shown he is not afraid to get his nose dirty to score. This should even make old Iron Mike smile from time to time. A 100-point season is not out of the question.
Joe Sakic, Colorado Avalanche
The Lowdown: The Avs' 06-07 season was disappointing, however, elder statesman Joe enjoyed a renaissance year with 100 points. With Captain Canada, Ryan Smyth, in the fold it will take some of the leadership burden off Sakic. He is an iron man, having missed just one game in three seasons. His average minutes went up last season, so despite the fact that he's 38, if he can put up a point a game it won't matter if he's 88.
Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit Red Wings
The Lowdown: The shifty Russkie enjoyed just a good year in 2006-2007. Datsyuk's numbers flatlined for two years, but his plus minus blossomed from 26 to 36 and his ice time went up two full minutes in 06-07. He should be able to make the leap past 90 points this year, with plenty of time on the power play.
Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks
The Lowdown: San Jose got bounced too early from last year's playoffs and that couldn't have sat well with Joe. With a healthy Jonathan Cheechoo riding shotgun, Joe's penchant for passing will pay off. Do you care if he scores more than 30 goals? Nah. He is capable of over 100 assists and +30 or better. That's bound to make any poolie's day.
Jonathan Cheechoo, San Jose Sharks
The Lowdown: With Joe Thornton threading him beautiful one-time passes, Cheechoo can't help but get back to scoring 50-plus goals. I liken Cheechoo as Chris Farley to Thornton's David Spade. Just keep feeding the man, something's due to pop in a big way.
Defence
Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings
The Lowdown - The reigning Norris trophy winner should be a dead lock as your first pick on the backline. If 62 points and a +40 aren't good enough for you, then you're a twit. Teamed with new Wing Brian Rafalski, he is a stud who will post equal or better numbers this year.
Tomas Kaberle, Toronto Maple Leafs
The Lowdown - Kaberle will win the Norris Trophy in the very near future. He'll do it because he has outstanding poise and a knack for knowing when to hold on to the disc and when to dish off. Oh yeah, he'll keep racking up assist totals in the 50s and if he ever learns to unload, maybe 20 goals.
Dan Boyle, Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lowdown - He is the NHL's Quiet Man. If there was a quieter 20 goals and 63 points, show me. Boyle is the Lightning's premiere puck mover on a power play that features a few schlubs like Lecavalier, St. Louis and Richards. Go ahead, don't pick him. I dare ya.
A note of caution, however. Boyle is expected to miss at least the opening month of the season after undergoing wrist surgery.
Chris Pronger, Anaheim Ducks
The Lowdown - Usually a front runner on any poolie's pre-season list, there are a few reasons to believe Pronger could go either way on his overall numbers. His 59 points and +27 last year were no aberration for this ice horse; however, Mathieu Schneider is no Scott Neidermayer. That is, if Niedermayer decides to pack it in. The big guy will still surpass the 50-point plateau in 07-08.
John-Michael Liles, Colorado Avalanche
The Lowdown - If any set of forwards is as prime a target as those of the Avs, then a defencemen like Liles should have a field day. Scott Hannan signed to much fanfare during the free agent frenzy but offensive-minded Liles is due to bust some career totals in points. He should easily surpass 50 points, with at least half coming via the power play.
Kimmo Timonen, Philadelphia Flyers
The Lowdown - Timonen was part of Nashville's fire sale and the Flyers are sure to be a huge benefactor. The mobile Finn will quarterback a revamped Flyers powerplay and give them a puck-moving rearguard who'll more than ably fill the void left by Joni Pitkanen.
Lubomir Visnovsky, Los Angeles Kings
The Lowdown - I am usually snoozing by the time Visnovsky gets his game on in LA. Too bad for me and the rest of you Eastern time zone poolies. No shrinking violet, the compact Slovak followed up a breakout 05-06 season with a great season that hardly anyone saw.
The Kings D is solid with Rob Blake, Brad Stuart, Tom Preissing and probably Jack Johnson along for the ride. This is Visnovsky's show, though, and he won't disappoint.
Goalies
Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks
The Lowdown - Any goalie not named Brodeur that is key to his team's hopes has to be Luongo. He got the games and the contract he was looking for and he delivered in a big way. The Canucks were seriously just average in 06-07 and Roberto stole the show. He'll do the same, or better, this season. He thrives on lots of work and I think this year's Canucks won't disappoint.
Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins
The Lowdown - Fleury will eventually assume the all-world mantel that Martin Brodeur has owned forever. His stock went up last season, considering the relatively porous crew in front of him. With a little more attention to detail from Pens' rearguards, Fleury will post at least 40 wins, 6 or 7 shutouts and lower his goals against by at least a quarter point.